So you’re wondering how the Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) is calculated? Below are all the metrics used to calculate PSI , if you want to learn more about certain metrics I have linked some back to their original source material. Enjoy!
- Breakout Age (BA) – is defined by their age at midpoint of the college football season when they first posted a Dominator Rating at or above 20% – This was pioneered by Frank DuPont and Shawn Siegele first examined each wide receiver’s breakout age on RotoViz.com. A Breakout Age under 20 is exceptional.
- Successful Wide Receiver Measurements (SWRM) – Jacob Feldman of DLF wrote an article in 2012 detailing out what the average Combine/Pro Day metrics were for the average Top 25 WR at the time. For a couple of reasons, age of article/data and thisHarvard Article on the Combine and WR’s, I weighted this the least amount across all metrics.
- Lbs per In, Hand Size, Height, 40yd dash, Vertical Leap, Broad jump, 2yd Shuttle, 3 Cone
- Top 25 WR’s hit on a least 7 of those above on average
- Phenom Index (PI) – The Phenom Index is calculated by looking at player’s age and their final season market share of receiving yards and bolting them together using z-scores. Typically, I like to think about this as a filter for finding young, talented players who could emerge to be among the game’s best within three seasons. The baseline here is 1.98 or above for WR’s.
- Dominator Rating (DR) – looks at the market share of a team’s passing offense–yards and touchdowns– for which a player is responsible, ignores age. In terms of predicting NFL success, any number over .50 – which roughly corresponds to having caught 50% of your team’s yards and TDs – projects as an NFL superstar or Top 10 overall pick value. .45-.50 is excellent (roughly Top 15 pick value), .40-.45 very good (Top 20 pick), .35-.40 (late first, early second), .30-35 (second round to third round), below .30 (middle round pick). Of course, DR in isolation only provides part of the picture.
- Bench Press (BP) – According to the HSCA the bench press was the only statistically relevant drill that could predict future success. WR’s have to be able to get off press coverage, push-off DB’s (without getting flagged) and block, right? The baseline here is 10 or more reps for WR’s.
- Height Weight Adjusted Speed Score (HasS) – Created by Bill Barnwell, HaSS is scaled with 100 being a solid draftable score, anything over 110 being excellent, and anything over 120 suggesting complete physical dominance for WR’s 6’1” or taller, not as impactful for shorter WR’s.
- Prospect Success Indicator: This is the cumulative score I have based on how each WR ranked across all the metrics listed above. Here’s how I weighted the metrics to get to my final rankings: DR and PI at 40% each, BP at 15% and SWRM at 5%. BA is accounted for well enough within PI, and HaaS is only good to look at for those WR’s at/over 6’1” from my understanding. This will need to be refined as time goes on but for now works well I think.