Prospect Success Indicator: Official Database and Calculations


So you’re wondering what is Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) and how is it calculated? In short, it’s a weighted equation of various advanced metrics used to get down to one prospect score.

Below are all advanced metrics used to calculate PSI , if you want to learn more about certain metrics I have linked some back to their original source material. Enjoy!

  1. Breakout Age(BA) – is defined by their age at midpoint of the college football season when they first posted a Dominator Rating at or above 20% – This was pioneered by Frank DuPont and Shawn Siegele first examined each wide receiver’s breakout age on A Breakout Age under 20 is exceptional.
  2. Successful Wide Receiver Measurements (SWRM)Jacob Feldman of DLF wrote an article in 2012 detailing out what the average Combine/Pro Day metrics were for the average Top 25 WR at the time. For a couple of reasons, age of article/data and thisHarvard Article on the Combine and WR’s, I weighted this the least amount across all metrics.
    • Lbs per In, Hand Size, Height, 40yd dash, Vertical Leap, Broad jump, 2yd Shuttle, 3 Cone
    • Top 25 WR’s hit on a least 7 of those above on average
  3. Phenom Index (PI) – The Phenom Index is calculated by looking at player’s age and their final season market share of receiving yards and bolting them together using z-scores. Typically, I like to think about this as a filter for finding young, talented players who could emerge to be among the game’s best within three seasons. The baseline here is 1.98 or above for WR’s.
  4. Dominator Rating(DR) – Developed by Matt Kelly of Player Profiler –  This metric looks at the market share of a team’s passing offense–yards and touchdowns– for which a player is responsible, ignores age. In terms of predicting NFL success, any number over .50 – which roughly corresponds to having caught 50% of your team’s yards and TDs – projects as an NFL superstar or Top 10 overall pick value. .45-.50 is excellent (roughly Top 15 pick value), .40-.45 very good (Top 20 pick), .35-.40 (late first, early second), .30-35 (second round to third round), below .30 (middle round pick). Of course, DR in isolation only provides part of the picture.
  5. Bench Press (BP) – According to the HSCA the bench press was the only statistically relevant drill that could predict future success.  WR’s have to be able to get off press coverage, push-off DB’s (without getting flagged) and block, right? The baseline here is 10 or more reps for WR’s.
  6. Height Weight Adjusted Speed Score (HasS) – Created by Bill Barnwell, HaSS is scaled with 100 being a solid draftable score, anything over 110 being excellent, and anything over 120 suggesting complete physical dominance for WR’s 6’1” or taller, not as impactful for shorter WR’s.
  7. Prospect Success Indicator Score: This is the cumulative score based on how each WR ranked across all the metrics listed above. Here’s how the metrics re weighted to get to my final rankings: DR and PI at 40% each, BP at 15% and SWRM at 5%. BA is accounted for well enough within PI, and HaaS is only good to look at for those WR’s at/over 6’1” from my understanding. My calculations will continue to be refined as time goes on= as I grow my sample size and result with each year.
  8. Prospect Success Indicator Database: Now that you know how it’s calculated, you can find the full database from 2012-2017 by clicking the link to the FFDynasty260 website….2018 WR Class is currently under construction – check back again soon.

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